Donnerstag, 11. Dezember 2008
In-Depth Analysis Pittsburgh-Baltimore
It is difficult to argue against the notion that the Pittsburgh Steelers boast the most powerful defense in the National Football League in 2008. That said, the Baltimore Ravens and their fine defensive unit will be seeking some of their own attention when the two teams square off in a crucial AFC North showdown from M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday.
The first-place Steelers (10-3) proved last week that their No. 1 rank in most of the league's defensive statistical categories was no fluke. Despite another lackluster offensive effort, Mike Tomlin's team turned a 13-3 deficit against the Dallas Cowboys into a 20-13 win over the game's final 7:15, primarily on the strength of their stifling defense. A 25-yard touchdown return by cornerback Deshea Townsend off of a Tony Romo interception provided the big blow for Pittsburgh, which forced one of the league's best offenses into five turnovers, including three picks from Romo, who was also sacked three times.
The Steelers now lead the NFL in categories such as total defense (241.9 yards per game), scoring defense (14.1 points per game), touchdowns allowed (17), rushing defense (73 yards per game), passing defense (168.9 yards per game), and are tied for the league lead in sacks (45).
More importantly, Pittsburgh remains one game clear of Baltimore in the race for the AFC North crown, also residing in the driver's seat for one of two first-round byes in the conference portion of the playoffs.
The Ravens (9-4) can't seize control of the division from the Steelers even with a win on Sunday, with an inferior conference record ranking as an unfavorable tiebreaker for John Harbaugh's club, but can get within striking distance of a playoff berth while also clearing a psychological hurdle against a division rival that defeated them (23-20) in a Week 4 overtime thriller earlier this season.
Baltimore is a red-hot 7-1 over its last eight games, including a 24-10 win over the Redskins last week that clinched a winning season for the Ravens just one year after a 5-11 debacle. Defense ruled the day for the Ravens as usual, with safety Ed Reed making the biggest headlines in the win. Reed finished the game with two interceptions, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and three tackles, setting the tone for the night with a 22-yard touchdown return of a Clinton Portis fumble to stake Baltimore to an ultimately insurmountable 14-0 first-quarter lead.
Baltimore heads into Sunday's tilt ranked first in the NFL in interceptions recorded (22), rushing touchdowns allowed (3), opponents' third-down percentage (29.5), opponents' completion percentage (51.7), and is tied for the lead in safeties recorded (3).
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
The Steelers' stifling defense has overshadowed the work of an offense that has moved in fits and starts this season. Pittsburgh heads to Baltimore ranked a distant 26th in NFL total offense (302.8 yards per game), and comes off a week in which it was held out of the end zone for nearly the first 58 minutes of the game.
That said, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (2616 passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT) did engineer a crucial game-tying drive at exactly the right time, taking the team on an eight-play, 67-yard drive culminating with a touchdown pass to tight end Heath Miller (32 receptions, 3 TD). The work of an offensive line that has allowed a bloated 41 sacks on the season has made it difficult for wide receivers Hines Ward (60 receptions, 6 TD) and Santonio Holmes (44 receptions, 3 TD) to get down the field consistently.
The once-revered Steeler running game ranks just 23rd in the league as Week 15 commences (103.8 yards per game), and it will be important that backs Willie Parker (597 rushing yards, 4 TD) and Mewelde Moore are able to get going on Sunday. Parker managed just 25 yards on 12 carries against Dallas a week ago, and will be facing Baltimore for the first time this year after sitting out the Week 4 matchup due to injury.
Job number one for the Ravens defense will be attacking Roethlisberger and the team's shaky pass-protecting unit. Linebackers Terrell Suggs (56 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 2 INT) and Jarret Johnson (50 tackles, 5 sacks) have been the most frequent Baltimore visitors to opposing backfields this season, with Suggs breaking through for one of two team sacks against the Redskins' Jason Campbell last Sunday.
When the Ravens don't sack Big Ben, the likes of Reed (29 tackles, 5 INT) and cornerbacks Fabian Washington (22 tackles, 1 INT) and Samari Rolle (15 tackles, 3 INT) will be trying to make plays on the back end. Reed's pick-six touchdown last week was the 11th touchdown off a return in his six-year NFL career. The Ravens are second in the league against the pass (176.4 yards per game) and third versus the run (77 yards per game).
Tackles Haloti Ngata (45 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) and Justin Bannan (40 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) have made a huge impact in the trenches this year, and perennial Pro Bowl middle linebacker Ray Lewis (97 tackles, 3 INT, 2 sacks) has been his usual steady self making plays behind them. Lewis posted a game-high 13 tackles against the Redskins last Sunday.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Flacco (2410 passing yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) will be trying to eliminate the memory of his first outing against the Steelers back in Week 4, a game in which he threw his first career touchdown pass but was also sacked five times, including one that resulted in a Flacco fumble that was returned for a game-changing seven-yard touchdown return for LaMarr Woodley. The rookie signal-caller has come a long way since that day, boosting his season passer rating to a respectable 81.3 on the year and throwing a touchdown pass in eight consecutive games entering this week.
Derrick Mason (65 receptions, 4 TD) has been Flacco's favorite receiver this season, but fellow wideout Mark Clayton (30 receptions, 3 TD) and tight end Todd Heap (29 receptions, 3 TD) have had their moments as well.
The Ravens rank fifth in NFL rushing offense, and have used backs LeRon McClain (606 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 8 TD), Willis McGahee (521 rushing yards, 5 TD, 17 receptions), and Ray Rice (454 rushing yards, 33 receptions) almost interchangeably this year. It was McClain who got the call in last week's win over Washington, as the occasional fullback rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown.
The Ravens line has done a generally strong job of protecting Flacco this year, surrendering 23 sacks on the season.
With so many key members contributing to the Steelers' top-ranked defense, singling out a handful of players for Pro Bowl inclusion could be an exceedingly difficult task.
Safety Troy Polamalu (63 tackles), who leads the NFL in interceptions (7) and has intercepted a pass in four consecutive games, figures to be one such player cited. Outside linebacker James Harrison (89 tackles, 1 INT), who has combined with LaMarr Woodley (53 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 INT) to forge arguably the league's most feared pass rush, now needs just one sack to break Mike Merriweather's single-season record of 15 in 1984. And not to be forgotten is the run-stopping unit, featuring nose tackle Casey Hampton (18 tackles, 1 sack) and end Aaron Smith (45 tackles, 4.5 sacks) in the trenches, with inside linebackers James Farrior (100 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Lawrence Timmons (48 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) among those working behind them. Farrior posted a game-high 12 tackles last week. If the Steelers have a weakness, it is probably the coverage abilities of their corners, though as mentioned, Townsend (18 tackles, 2 INT) provided a major splash with his INT return for a touchdown last week.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Just as it did when these teams met in Week 4, this game figures to turn on a handful of major plays. In the first meeting between the Steelers and Ravens, it was a Flacco mistake that opened the door to a Pittsburgh win, but the young quarterback has grown much more efficient and should be at least slightly more comfortable in his second effort against the Steelers. If he can get rid of the ball and make a play or two down the field, the Ravens will put enough points on the board to stay afloat. Then it will come down to the Baltimore defense, which should continue its playmaking ways against a Pittsburgh attack that is bound to falter after living dangerously in wins over the past few weeks. Look for the Ravens to make it six straight wins in Baltimore, making the AFC North race one to watch over the final two weeks.
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