Sonntag, 21. Dezember 2008

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The Cowboys, who have yet to clinch a playoff spot, will play their third consecutive game against a powerful defensive team. Baltimore is also still fighting to secure its playoff position in the AFC.

This is a game between two of the NFL's premier defenses. We all knew Baltimore, ranked second in the league in total defense, with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis would be outstanding defensively.

But the Cowboys and their seventh-ranked defense are also among the teams playing the best defense in the league. The Cowboys' defensive fortunes turned seven weeks ago when coach Wade Phillips took over the defensive reins. Since then, he has called the plays, while defensive coordinator Brian Stewart has handled the game plan.

This game is about which defense can outplay the other.

Lewis remains one of the top defensive players in the league. He can inspire a defense, especially when it's going against a bunch of Pro Bowl-caliber players like Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Terrell Owens and Marion Barber.

The Cowboys have yielded just four touchdowns in their opponents' last 60 possessions, spanning five games. DeMarcus Ware, a candidate for defensive player of the year, leads the team with 19 sacks -- three shy of the NFL record for most sacks in a season.

Dallas, though, does as much bickering off-the-field with each other as they do on the field against opponents.

Last week, Dallas had its fill of drama after owner Jerry Jones criticized running back Marion Barber's toughness, though he backtracked a day later; ESPN reported Terrell Owens was jealous of the relationship between Tony Romo and Jason Witten, a claim he denied; three receivers, including Owens, met privately with offensive coordinator Jason Garrett; and coach Wade Phillips held a 30-minute team meeting on Friday.

They overcame those issues and dismantled the Giants, 20-8. But after back-to-back physical games against the Steelers and Giants, the question is how much the Cowboys have left for Baltimore.


Ravens Keys For Success

1. Slow the Dallas running game.

The Cowboys have one of the biggest offensive lines in the league. They can overpower defenses and wear teams down in the fourth quarter. The Ravens defensive line has to have a big game.

2. Pressure Romo.

The Cowboys have a lot of weapons on the outside, and the Ravens secondary has been hit hard by injuries. If the Ravens don't get pressure on the quarterback, Dallas could put up big numbers.

3. Breathe some life back into Flacco.

The rookie quarterback's passes are sailing too high, a sign of bad mechanics. He could possibly be hitting the proverbial rookie wall. Flacco needs to get back to his previous form for the Ravens to win in Dallas.


Cowboys Keys For Success

1. Fluster Flacco.

The Cowboys have flustered some of the league's top quarterbacks -- Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning -- the past two games. The Cowboys sacked Roethlisberger five times and Manning eight. The key, though, is taking away the running game and making teams one dimensional. Flacco passed for just 115 yards against Pittsburgh. In fact, he has passed for more than 200 yards just once in the last six games, with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. He's only been sacked 25 times this season.

2. Feed of emotion.

This is likely the last game at Texas Stadium. Combine that with the emotion and intensity fans usually bring to a night game, and the Cowboys should have every emotional advantage.

Baltimore is not equipped to play from behind with its conservative offense and rookie quarterback. If the Cowboys can score early and make the Ravens abandon their running game, they'll have a significantly easier time with this team.

3. Use Tashard Choice early and often.

It's hard to believe, but Tashard Choice has been the Cowboys' best offensive player each of the last two weeks. He had 166 yards in total offense against Pittsburgh and 143 yards against the Giants. He's equally effective in the running and passing game, and he's provided the offense with yet another player with big-play capability.

Barber is still recovering from a dislocated pinkie toe, which is among the reasons he gained just two yards on eight carries against the Giants. Choice is a good runner between the tackles because he's patient to the hole before exploding through it, which means he could have some success against Baltimore.

The Bottom Line

For the first time in years, the Cowboys appear to be peaking in December. They're playing their best football right now -- even with all of the dysfunctional stuff going on off-the-field. The short week makes it tougher on the visiting Ravens. The Cowboys have too much offense even for a quality defensive like Baltimore. Tony Romo won't pass for 300 yards, but he should get around 225, and the Cowboys will get their 10th win.

Scoring prediction: Ravens 9 - Cowboys 19



A look at the Ravens' offense vs. the Cowboys' defense


RUNNING GAME:

The Ravens will have to run because they can't rely on rookie quarterback Joe Flacco's arm to carry the offense. Dallas' defense isn't very big up front, and the Ravens will try to run downhill against them. Look for the Ravens to use a lot of unbalanced-line formations and try to play power football with running back Le'Ron McClain and fullback Lorenzo Neal.

Dallas will stack the box with seven or eight players to force Flacco to pass. The Ravens have to get yards on first down for Flacco to be able to manage the game, and to keep the Cowboys guessing whether they will run or pass on second and third downs.


PASSING GAME:

Because of Dallas's explosive offense, the Ravens may have to take shots down field to keep pace. Cowboys cornerbacks Terence Newman and Anthony Henry like to press up on receivers, so there will be opportunities for plays down the field. But Flacco has to be more accurate than he's been in the past two weeks. The Ravens have had receivers open, but Flacco has failed to get them the ball.


THE BLITZ:

The Cowboys don't have to blitz a lot because they can get pressure with their front four, particularly defensive ends Marcus Spears and Chris Canty. Dallas also gets heavy pressure with outside linabckers DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis. To slow the Cowboys down, the Ravens might want to use more draws and screens than they have in previous weeks. The Ravens likely will go to maximum protection, which means tight end Todd Heap will be used more as a pass blocker than receiver.


IN THE RED ZONE:

Look for the Ravens to stay with the unbalanced line and run the ball inside the red zone. If the Ravens have to pass, these will be safe passes going to running back Ray Rice on flares to the outside, or dumps over the middle. Most of the passes will come off play-action. The Ravens haven't allowed Flacco to throw into tight windows much inside the red zone. In fact, against good teams, the Ravens run more than the pass to avoid turnovers.


A look at the Cowboys' offense vs. the Ravens' defense


RUNNING GAME:

The Ravens rank third in the NFL in run defense, allowing 78.0 yards per game. Defensive tackle Justin Bannan, 6-3 and 310 pounds, does a good job anchoring the middle, so it will be up to Cowboys Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode to move him. Tashard Choice, who has totaled more than 170 yards rushing in the past two games could have some success because he's good at running between the tackles. Marion Barber managed just two yards on eight carries last week as he continues to recover from a dislocated toe that forced him to miss the game against the Steelers.

PASSING GAME:

Dallas is at its best when Tony Romo is spreading the ball around and several players are involved in the passing offense. The best way for Baltimore to slow down Romo is with zone coverages. Romo can get impatient and try to force the ball into tight spots trying to make big plays, and he sometimes makes poor reads because he's fooled by the coverage. The Cowboys have an offense that thrives on big plays. They scored on a 34-yard pass and a 38-yard run against the Giants.

THE BLITZ:

The Ravens typically don't unleash their blitz packages until third down, preferring to be more sound on first and second down. Baltimore has only five sacks on first down and only eight on second down. But when they get teams into long-yardage situations on third down, they're very successfu. The Ravens rank 10th in the league with 31 sacks. Terrell Suggs has big-play potential and leads the Ravens with 7.5 sacks.

IN THE RED ZONE:

Fullback Deon Anderson caught a one-yard touchdown pass last week, giving teams one more aspect of the Cowboys' red zone offense to worry about. The Cowboys have scored touchdowns on 24 of 37 red zone possessions, the second-best percentage in the league. And they lead the NFL on goal-to-go series with 16 touchdowns in 18 possessions. The key is versatility. Dallas has so many weapons and can attack in so many different ways that it becomes a guessing game for defensive coordinators, who usually lose.


Cowboys WR Terrell Owens vs. Ravens CB Samari Rolle

Owens, despite his mouth, is still one of the best receivers in the league, and he's at his best when teams aren't pressing him at the line of scrimmage. Rolle can run with Owens, but he isn't physical enough to jam him and hold him at the line of scrimmage. Look for the Ravens to give Rolle help over the top with a safety.


Ravens OT Jared Gaither and Willie Anderson vs. Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware

Ware is one of the best pass rushers in the league. He has a great initial burst, and can speed rush around end, but he also is strong enough to work leverage. Dallas sometimes moves him around. Gaither has played well this season, but Ware's strength will give Gaither trouble, and Ware's speed might be too much for Anderson.


Cowboys TE Jason Witten vs. Ravens S Ed Reed

If Witten wasn't so talented, then Reed would be giving Rolle help over the top. But because Witten is an impact player, it will be Reed's job to take him out of the game. Witten can get down field, but no safety in the league covers as much ground as Reed. If Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is slow delivering the ball, Reed could have a couple of picks.

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